The Middle East has been redrawn a dozen times, through many ideas, analysis, plans or projects. Reading these ‘proposals’, there are a few things that strike me :
* Many of the proposals are coming from outside the Middle East.
* Often, the views of M-E people potentially most affected are not considered.
* In many instances, the declared beneficiaries are the people of the M-E.
I am not sure that the declared final objectives (peace, justice, …) are the real ones. Also, the key issue of vital natural ressources allocation is rarely ever mentioned. That is : rivers (dams, irrigation channels, downstream flow rate, pollution), groundwater/ water table, minerals, oil & gas, civil nuclear energy access/sharing, etc etc
The « Middle East » expression appeared for the first time in 1902 (*)
I try to list the « ideas », « analysis », as well as the « plans », chronologically
1896 — The Jewish State
1947 — UN Partition Plan of Palestine
1982 — Oded Yinon views
90s — Idea of « Greater Israel »
2004 — Greater Middle East Initiative
2006 — New Middle East
2009 — A Clean Break
2013 — Wright Plan
2016 — Plan « B »
1896 — « The Jewish State »
Theodor Herzl, doctor in law, was an european Jew. The persistence of antisemitism in Europe was intolerable. Herzl considered that the creation of a refuge state for the Jews was an interesting solution for both Jews and non-Jews. He published this idea under the title « Der Judenstaat » (“The State for the Jews” also translated as “The Jewish State”) in 1896. Herzl indicated that diplomacy was the route forward, and said : « We shall take what is given to us. » In 1896, he was thinking of some location for the ‘Jewish State’ : Argentina or Palestine.
In 1902, he visited Jerusalem, and the idea of Palestine was more present in his mind. He then published a novel « Altneuland » (old-new land). He had in mind an « Aristocratic Republic » where Arabs and Jews have equal rights.
1916 — Sykes-Picot Agreement
Secret negociations took place between the United Kingdom, the French Third Republic, with the assent of the Russian Empire.
The agreement defined the spheres of influence in the Region.
1947 — UN Partition Plan of Palestine
The Plan (november 1947) provides for the creation of independent Arab and Jewish states, and a special International regime for the Jerusalem area.
The plan was adopted by 33 countries, 13 voted against, and 10 abstentions. Arab leaders and government voted against.
Rabbi Fischmann (Jewish Agency for Palestine), declared (july 1947) to the U.N. Committee of Enquiry that : “The Promised Land extends from the River of Egypt up to the Euphrates, it includes parts of Syria and Lebanon.”
In the final draft text, the provisional government of Israel decided to drop the inclusion of the designation of borders in the Declaration of Independance 14 may 1948. The same day, a (non-binding) side letter has been sent to the US President, which says that the proclamation occured “within the frontiers approved by the General Assembly of the United Nations in its Resolution of November 29, 1947”. (**)
The declaration of independence said that a Constitution will be approved by 01 october 1948. It has not happened yet. Today, the borders issue is still open : borders are potentially « flexible ».
1982 — Oded Yinon views
Yinon is an obscure journalist (or a pseudonym?). His views were published in the ‘Kivunim’ (Directions) journal in february 1982. Two key affirmations/assumptions were put forward :
* the survival of Israel requires that Israel becomes an imperial regional power , and,
* to get there, each Arab state of the region must be ‘broken’ into smaller Arab states. Each of these states having some ethnic or religious homogeneity.
’90s — Idea of « Greater Israel »
The english expression « Greater Israel » is a translation of the hebrew « Land of Israel ». But the boundaries of both expressions vary according to the interlocutors.
The « Greater Israel » varies from « Mandatory Palestine 1946 » (i.e. Arab State + Jewish State + Jerusalem) to a large part of the Arabic Peninsula.
2004 — Greater Middle East Initiative
With this initiative, George W. Bush proposed sweeping changes in the way the West deals with the « Greater » Middle East. The initiative covered most of the Muslim world.
The main strategy behind the initiative was to ‘export’ the American democratic model to the Arab & Islamic world, and to redefine borders/nations in line with American geopolitical views.
2006 — New Middle East
« Blood Borders » is the title of a 2006 US ‘Armed Forces Journal ‘ article. It asserts that the major problem in the Middle East (and in Africa) is ‘the boundaries worshipped by our own diplomats’. The article explains that ‘The boundaries projected in the maps accompanying this article redress the wrongs suffered by the most significant “cheated” population groups, such as (etc) (etc)’ and indicate that ‘without such major boundary revisions, we shall never see a more peaceful Middle East’.
The AFJ added : ‘For Israel to have any hope of living in reasonable peace with its neighbors, it will have to return to its pre-1967 borders — with essential local adjustments for legitimate security concerns.’
In 2006, the Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Israelian Prime Minister informed the media that a project for a « New Middle East » has been launched from Lebanon.
2009 — A Clean Break:
A new israeli strategy 1996–2009 which seems to shelve the « New Middle East » project.
« A Clean Break : A new Strategy for Securing the Realm » « We have for four years pursued peace based on a New Middle East. We in Israel cannot play innocents abroad in a world that is not innocent. Peace depends on the character and behavior of our foes. We live in a dangerous neighborhood, with fragile states and bitter rivalries. Displaying moral ambivalence between the effort to build a Jewish state and the desire to annihilate it by trading “land for peace” will not secure “peace now.” Our claim to the land — to which we have clung for hope for 2000 years — is legitimate and noble. It is not within our own power, no matter how much we concede, to make peace unilaterally. Only the unconditional acceptance by Arabs of our rights, especially in their territorial dimension, “peace for peace,” is a solid basis for the future. » (…) « Israel will not only contain its foes; it will transcend them. »
2013 — Wright Plan
The september 2013 Plan foresees changes in Syria and Irak : creation of a Kurdistan, a Shiitestan, and of a Sunnistan., Lybia, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen are also part of the Plan. In fact, the Wright Plan break up 5 countries into 14 smaller pieces.
2016 — Plan « B »
It is not clear to me what this « Plan B » is. It could be similar to the Wright Plan fot Syria and Irak, in case peace talks fail.
JP (may 2016)
§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§
(*) American, expert in naval strategy Alfred T. Mahan used the expression in an article of the National Review (London).
(**) Letter May 14, 1948 from Eliahu Epstein to Harry S. Truman :
§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§§
